StatTunerMMO Player Tools
M2 KO OSRS AO
Knight Online tools/Gem Simulator
RANDOM REWARD

Gem Simulator

Simulate gem and fragment openings with editable reward values and probability tables.

Loading tool…
ORIGINAL TOOL DOCUMENTATION

Knight Online Gem Simulator

Simulate Knight Online gem and fragment openings. Calculate expected profit or loss with Monte Carlo simulations. Decide whether to open or sell items to optimize your strategy.

Game versionVerified July 2026 Reviewed2026-07-19 MethodTransparent user-input calculation

About this tool

Deciding whether to open or sell valuable gems is a common Knight Online dilemma. This simulator offers data-driven analysis for informed decisions.

It uses expected value and Monte Carlo simulations to show average profit and the full range of outcomes. Understand risks and rewards to optimize your in-game economy.

How to use it

  1. 01

    Enter Open Count

    Enter how many gems or fragments you plan to open (e.g., '100' for 100 Gem of Lives).

  2. 02

    Input Gem Cost

    Enter the current market price for one gem or fragment. Check the market first; this cost is crucial for investment.

  3. 03

    Set Sale Factor

    Adjust the percentage for selling rewards. A 97% factor means you keep 97% of the item's market value after fees (e.g., market taxes).

  4. 04

    Run Simulation

    Click to start calculations. The tool uses known drop rates and item prices from StatTuner.

  5. 05

    Review Results

    Review expected profit and the Monte Carlo graph. This graph shows how often you might get lucky or unlucky, helping you understand potential gains.

WORKED EXAMPLE

Worked Example: Gem of Life

The expected net profit from opening 100 Gem of Life items is 92,500,000 Noah.

See if opening 100 Gem of Life items is profitable versus selling them directly, using example market prices and drop rates.

Open Count100 Gem of LifeGem Cost1,500,000 Noah per Gem of Life (Example price; check current prices.)Sale Factor97% (You sell items for 97% of their market value.)
FormulaExpected net = sum(probability × reward value × sale_factor) − opening cost.
  1. 1. Calculate Total Opening Cost: 100 gems × 1,500,000 Noah/gem = 150,000,000 Noah.
  2. 2. Calculate Expected Value per Reward (after 97% sale factor): Item A: (0.50 × 1,000,000 Noah) × 0.97 = 485,000 Noah. Item B: (0.30 × 2,500,000 Noah) × 0.97 = 727,500 Noah. Item C: (0.15 × 5,000,000 Noah) × 0.97 = 727,500 Noah. Item D: (0.05 × 10,000,000 Noah) × 0.97 = 485,000 Noah.
  3. 3. Sum Expected Reward per gem: 485,000 + 727,500 + 727,500 + 485,000 = 2,425,000 Noah.
  4. 4. Total Expected Net Profit: (100 × 2,425,000 Noah) - 150,000,000 Noah = 92,500,000 Noah.
OptionExpected Noah Value (after fees)
Open and Sell Rewards242,500,000
Sell Raw Gems Directly145,500,000
Original interpretation

Opening 100 Gem of Life items is expected to yield 92,500,000 Noah profit, likely more profitable than selling raw gems. This is an *expected* value; actual results vary due to luck. Monte Carlo simulation shows the range of outcomes and real risk.

Limitations

  • Item prices change constantly. The tool uses StatTuner data, but market prices shift quickly. Always check current prices with the market-tracker tool before decisions.
  • The tool uses known drop rates. Game updates can change these without warning. While verified for July 2026, new patches might alter things.
  • Monte Carlo simulations show possible outcomes, but don't guarantee personal luck. You might get very lucky or unlucky.
  • Your 'sale_factor_percent' is an estimate. Actual selling prices vary based on market demand and how fast you sell.
  • The simulator does not account for inventory space, time spent selling, or other opportunity costs. It focuses purely on Noah value.